Since the last time of writing, uncertainty has increased across all markets given events in Eastern Europe.
OUR INTERPRETATION OF CURRENT MARKETS:
● It remains early days, however US Markets appear to have stabilised, indeed, recovered a little.
● This could be as events in Ukraine are already priced in.
● US Markets understand that there are unlikely to be further Interest rises in the short term (quarter of 1% likely max) because of the political environment, while there is a feeling that the Federal Reserve's willingness to print more money in March is increasing.
● Hard to know in which direction global money will move. In part to Bitcoin, but mostly to $US as it is still seen as a safe haven.
● Volatility in markets have reconfirmed that BTC and Crypto Markets in general, remain a “risk-on” asset and continue to react in harmony with traditional markets.
● Sam Bankman-Fried (Founder FTX) commented that with Bitcoin still a Risk-On Asset, he felt Bitcoin price was being controlled by algorithmic trading robots, and that the correlation was a ratio of 1:4% between Traditional Market moves and corresponding Bitcoin moves. The sums don’t quite back this ratio up, although we believe that the sentiment is correct.
GOING FORWARD
To control risk, Blockchain Century analysis is provided on a Macro Basis. In the closing days of February, three of our four tier one or primary Market Indicators are suggesting we are at a “Buy” point. We await positive signals from the remaining indicator.
Short term indicators point to recovery (which hopefully will translate into a Macro Bullish Market).
With the evolution of the space in terms of the technology, we saw last year dominated by the emergence of The NFT (non fungible token) oriented projects.
Our portfolio of projects under coverage has evolved over the second half of last year and can not be understood as 4 baskets of projects as detailed below:
Layer One Projects - independent operable blockchains
Solana, Terra Luna, Avalanche, Fantom, Cosmos
Layer Two2 Projects - a cross chain project providing solutions on layer one solutions
Matic, Harmony
Non Fungible Token Protocols:
Decentraland, Sandbox, Enjin, Solana, Matic, Axie Infinity
Decentralised Finance solutions:
Aaweave, Near Protocol, Maker, Aave, Alpha Finance, Curve
We are carefully monitoring the above projects using our indicators and will take positions as we see opportunities emerge.
Ever increasingly, the technologies of the stronger projects are providing crossover solutions between these categories, and we continue to closely monitor these developments.