Bitcoin: where are we now?

Welcome to Blockchain Century.

This is Philip on March the 14th 2024 and the topic of this episode is Bitcoin where are we now?

We need to remember that as a technology Bitcoin is still in its infancy having only mined its first block in January 2009 when it was 0.01 of a dollar.

At the time of recording Bitcoin sits just shy of $73,000.

Although ahead of schedule this does fit an historical pattern one of four such patterns in fact.

In its 15 year history it has been three halving events with the fourth due just a few weeks away in April of this year.

I won't go into detail about a halving other than to say that block rewards for miners halve resulting in a supply shortage and then of course if demand remains the same or invariably increases then the price only goes one way which is up of course.

These halving events correspond to Bitcoin's major bull runs all lasting around 18 months from the time of the halving event.

Interestingly, this four year cycle is mirrored elsewhere.

You have the four year US presidential elections which tend to coincide with money printing to boost the economy ahead of election day.

The Global M2 Money Supply Chart vs. Bitcoin Price.

So it's actually a very good way just by following the M2 money supply to predict Bitcoin's prices of highs and lows.

People in the Bitcoin in the crypto space will be familiar with and that's a Dutch financier who goes by the name or the pseudonym of Plan B. That's capital P-L-A-N capital B. And he produces what is called the stock to flow chart for Bitcoin.

And this is a very accurate and predictive rather than retrospective chart.

This currently predicts the next top at around $250,000 in 18 months time. So towards the end of 2025. And again, you can easily Google and see that for yourself.

Okay, now for my words of both caution as well as optimism.

Bitcoin has never been through a major financial collapse such as 07-08. It did show its resilience post-COVID economic shock by initially falling 60% but this was over a matter of weeks and it was also just prior to the last halving event in April 20.

Just after the shock of the first global lockdowns but BTC as I said Bitcoin showed its resilience by proceeding on its predicted cyclical path and in the following 18 months just went on to rise by it was around one and a half thousand percent

So finally where do I stand on the $250,000 prediction for the next 18 months?

Well I suppose my main point of caution would be a Black Swan event and how Bitcoin would react. We have to remember that it was designed for exactly such an event as the world's hardest currency.

It can now be regarded as a risk-off asset highlighted by the SEC legitimizing the space just recently by way of granting the ETFs.

Due to these ETFs we're already six months ahead in terms of previous cycles where all-time highs were not passed until well it was around six months after each halving whereas we have now passed that while being a month short of the halving.

This will be down to the huge influxes of money into the space from what the 11 ETFs that were granted including of course BlackRock.

So the question is in the event of a Black Swan event across global financial markets would Bitcoin be seen as a flight to safety?

At the moment Bitcoin's market cap is just one and a half trillion dollars and we now have not only the BlackRock circling but and other such funds

But also sovereign wealth funds, pension funds and so on, all of which could bring trillions of dollars into the space.

Thank you for listening here at Blockchain Century and please remember to subscribe at blockchaincentury.com.

Also, please remember that this is for educational and informative purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.